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SCOT PILIE'
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 10:26:17 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 17, 2017 10:26:17 GMT -6

The 12Z GFS may not be developing very much at the surface, but if you look at the 700-850mb Vorticity on the latest GFS, it does show some very weak broad circulation of 92L in the southeastern Gulf in about a weeks time. And like Sky mentioned, regardless of development, the steering pointing towards whatever 92L becomes heading towards the Gulf of Mexico.

Last Edit: Aug 17, 2017 10:31:03 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'

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SKYSUMMIT
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 10:28:40 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 10:28:40 GMT -6

Here at hour 186, Harvey moved through the Yucatan, into the Bay of Campeche and then into mainland Mexico.

cajungal no I don't believe the GFS. It's junk LOL. So I'm looking at the Canadian.

92L (future Irma) can be seen near Cuba, entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Last Edit: Aug 17, 2017 10:29:19 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24
Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CWOP ID: DW2721 (inactive)
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 62,307 Likes - 12,236 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 10:31:46 GMT -6 Wildish and SCOT PILIE' like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 10:31:46 GMT -6 12z CMC @ hour 222, Hurricane Irma moving northwest:
	Last Edit: Aug 17, 2017 10:31:55 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CWOP ID: DW2721 (inactive) CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

Siker
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 10:32:55 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT and SCOT PILIE' like this

Post by Siker on Aug 17, 2017 10:32:55 GMT -6

12z UKMET continues to show a solution which if extrapolated out might look similar to the Canadian:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.4N 64.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 72 19.4N 64.4W 1010 29
0000UTC 21.08.2017 84 20.6N 67.3W 1010 31
1200UTC 21.08.2017 96 21.1N 69.8W 1010 37
0000UTC 22.08.2017 108 21.7N 72.2W 1007 39
1200UTC 22.08.2017 120 22.2N 74.1W 1002 47
0000UTC 23.08.2017 132 22.3N 75.5W 996 53
1200UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 76.5W 990 56

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 62,307 Likes - 12,236 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 10:35:19 GMT -6 Wildish likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 10:35:19 GMT -6 End of the 12z CMC, Hurricane Irma moving north toward Destin:
	Last Edit: Aug 17, 2017 10:36:48 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CWOP ID: DW2721 (inactive) CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

cajungal Category 5 Posts - 3,855 Likes - 1,889	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 10:40:42 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 17, 2017 10:40:42 GMT -6 Just all depends on timing of that trough. Got to watch for trends and make sure SE Louisiana doesn't come into play.
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 62,307 Likes - 12,236 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 10:59:09 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 10:59:09 GMT -6 92L actually has a little more moisture to work with as compared to 91L.
	Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CWOP ID: DW2721 (inactive) CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

PinkFreud - Nola FQ
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 11:10:19 GMT -6 harpman likes this

Post by PinkFreud - Nola FQ on Aug 17, 2017 11:10:19 GMT -6

Aug 17, 2017 10:28:40 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Here at hour 186, Harvey moved through the Yucatan, into the Bay of Campeche and then into mainland Mexico.

cajungal no I don't believe the GFS. It's junk LOL. So I'm looking at the Canadian.

92L (future Irma) can be seen near Cuba, entering the Gulf of Mexico.

A sad day when we have to put more confidence in the "crazy uncle" than the GFS!

DYLAN FEDERICO
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 11:16:06 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 17, 2017 11:16:06 GMT -6

The steering pattern is definitely dangerous. The million dollar question is whether or not it develops. The overall upper environment looks great, but I think the big deciding factor is how strong does Harvey get in the Caribbean? If Harvey gets strong, it's outflow would shear 92L to death in the Bahamas. I think if Harvey stays weaker it would help 92L's cause tremendously.

Twitter: @dylanfedericowx
Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico
WINK Meteorologist

coreyl Category 2 Posts - 512 Likes - 13	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 12:20:27 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by coreyl on Aug 17, 2017 12:20:27 GMT -6 Thru 96 hours, this afternoon's Euro is not showing much, in fact not showing much of any tropical activity but will post if it starts to give more love for 92L.

DYLAN FEDERICO GCWX Supporter Meteorologist Posts - 17,509 Likes - 3,546 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 12:32:41 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 17, 2017 12:32:41 GMT -6 I don't trust the models, but it's REALLY TOUGH, to go against a consistent ECMWF that says no to development.
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WINK Meteorologist

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 62,307 Likes - 12,236 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 13:47:18 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 13:47:18 GMT -6 Yea, the ECMWF has Nine as a hurricane in the gulf. That may kill 92L all together.
	Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CWOP ID: DW2721 (inactive) CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 62,307 Likes - 12,236 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 13:56:21 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 13:56:21 GMT -6 The 12z HWRF's representation of 92L nearing hurricane strength as she moves west towards the Straits:
	Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CWOP ID: DW2721 (inactive) CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

SKYSUMMIT
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 13:58:23 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 13:58:23 GMT -6

18z Tropical Models:

* ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL922017  08/17/17  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    30    32    35    37    41    43    47    52    58    64
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    30    32    35    37    41    43    47    52    58    64
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    26    27    28    28    28    27    27    28    31    37    44
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     7    12    18    17    16    12    19    11    12     5     6     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2     1     5     7     7     6     5    -5     0    -5     0    -5    -5
SHEAR DIR        353   303   293   292   299   293   270   261   308   306    42   312    34
SST (C)         27.4  27.5  27.7  27.9  28.0  28.3  28.6  29.0  29.1  29.2  29.1  29.3  29.7
POT. INT. (KT)   132   133   135   138   139   143   147   154   156   158   155   159   166
ADJ. POT. INT.   136   135   136   137   136   140   145   152   153   155   148   152   157
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.2  -0.5  -0.6  -0.3  -0.1  -0.1  -0.2  -0.2   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     9    10    11    12    12    13    12    13    13    13
700-500 MB RH     60    61    60    58    58    62    60    61    58    59    58    61    59
MODEL VTX (KT)     9     9     9     9     9     9     8     8     6     6     4     4     3
850 MB ENV VOR     7     6    -3   -14   -29   -25   -31   -33   -34   -34   -55   -60   -67
200 MB DIV        13    18    17    20    30    20     0    11    10   -15   -24   -14     4
700-850 TADV       2     5     8    11     8     8     4    -1     0    -3     1    -9    -1
LAND (KM)       1425  1342  1297  1276  1214  1025   812   480   202   199   211   205   143
LAT (DEG N)     15.3  15.7  16.1  16.6  17.1  17.8  18.5  19.0  19.8  20.7  21.7  22.4  23.2
LONG(DEG W)     44.8  46.8  48.6  50.3  51.8  54.8  58.0  61.2  64.6  68.0  71.2  74.3  77.4
STM SPEED (KT)    20    19    17    16    15    15    15    16    16    17    15    15    14
HEAT CONTENT      31    24    21    34    33    41    41    46    51    44    63    33    67

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21      CX,CY: -20/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  686  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.8

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   3.   6.  12.  18.  23.  27.  31.  34.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -1.  -0.   0.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -8.  -9. -12. -13. -14.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   3.   5.   7.  10.  12.  16.  18.  22.  27.  33.  39.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   15.3    44.8

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST     08/17/17  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60           4.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    11.7      30.1  to    2.9       0.68           2.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    28.6       0.0  to  156.2       0.18           0.5
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.4       2.4  to   -3.0       0.52           1.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    14.0      36.6  to    2.8       0.67           2.1
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07           0.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   110.9      28.4  to  139.6       0.74           1.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    19.6     -29.7  to  181.5       0.23           0.2
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   132.0     961.4  to  -67.1       0.81           0.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           0.1
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   6% is   1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   1.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  13% is   1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     6.1%   16.6%   13.0%    8.1%    0.0%    0.0%   13.5%    0.0%
    Logistic:     3.8%   14.8%    7.9%    2.9%    2.2%    4.2%    5.7%   12.0%
    Bayesian:     0.3%    0.5%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.1%    0.1%    0.5%
   Consensus:     3.4%   10.6%    7.0%    3.7%    0.7%    1.4%    6.4%    4.2%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST     08/17/17  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST     08/17/2017  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    26    28    30    32    35    37    41    43    47    52    58    64
 18HR AGO           25    24    26    28    30    33    35    39    41    45    50    56    62
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    23    25    28    30    34    36    40    45    51    57
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    17    20    22    26    28    32    37    43    49
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24
Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CWOP ID: DW2721 (inactive)
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 62,307 Likes - 12,236 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 17, 2017 14:00:30 GMT -6 Wildish likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 14:00:30 GMT -6 12z UKMET has 92L at least a tropical storm in the Florida Straits:
	Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CWOP ID: DW2721 (inactive) CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

Ten Discussion Thread

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 17, 2017 10:26:17 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 10:28:40 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 10:31:46 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 17, 2017 10:32:55 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 10:35:19 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Aug 17, 2017 10:40:42 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 10:59:09 GMT -6

Post by PinkFreud - Nola FQ on Aug 17, 2017 11:10:19 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 17, 2017 11:16:06 GMT -6

Post by coreyl on Aug 17, 2017 12:20:27 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 17, 2017 12:32:41 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 13:47:18 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 13:56:21 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 13:58:23 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 17, 2017 14:00:30 GMT -6

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