Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 17, 2017 10:26:17 GMT -6
The 12Z GFS may not be developing very much at the surface, but if you look at the 700-850mb Vorticity on the latest GFS, it does show some very weak broad circulation of 92L in the southeastern Gulf in about a weeks time. And like Sky mentioned, regardless of development, the steering pointing towards whatever 92L becomes heading towards the Gulf of Mexico.
Last Edit: Aug 17, 2017 10:31:03 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'
Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 17, 2017 11:16:06 GMT -6
The steering pattern is definitely dangerous. The million dollar question is whether or not it develops. The overall upper environment looks great, but I think the big deciding factor is how strong does Harvey get in the Caribbean? If Harvey gets strong, it's outflow would shear 92L to death in the Bahamas. I think if Harvey stays weaker it would help 92L's cause tremendously.
Thru 96 hours, this afternoon's Euro is not showing much, in fact not showing much of any tropical activity but will post if it starts to give more love for 92L.
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 35 37 41 43 47 52 58 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 35 39 41 45 50 56 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 30 34 36 40 45 51 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 22 26 28 32 37 43 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
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