Ten Discussion Thread

Siker
Category 3

Posts: 760

Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 10:39:19 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Siker on Aug 16, 2017 10:39:19 GMT -6

Aug 16, 2017 9:47:17 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Around that same time frame near the end of those 12z runs above, ridging is forecast by the GFS to be in place. That would force anything to bend back west, and into the Gulf....IF all this is correct, AND 92L actually does something.

And that's what the 12z Canadian and 12z UKMET (if extrapolated) indicate.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.2N 51.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2017 60 16.8N 52.8W 1010 33
1200UTC 19.08.2017 72 17.3N 56.6W 1009 34
0000UTC 20.08.2017 84 17.6N 60.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 20.08.2017 96 17.9N 63.3W 1007 37
0000UTC 21.08.2017 108 18.7N 66.3W 1005 44
1200UTC 21.08.2017 120 19.5N 69.1W 1001 48
0000UTC 22.08.2017 132 20.5N 72.0W 997 53
1200UTC 22.08.2017 144 21.1N 74.2W 998 54

hurricaner
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 12:29:11 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 16, 2017 12:29:11 GMT -6

Latest on 92L 40/50%

2. A second area of low pressure is located about 800 miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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coreyl
Category 2

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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 13:06:28 GMT -6

Post by coreyl on Aug 16, 2017 13:06:28 GMT -6

We've seen enough rain this summer here in south Mississippi and New Orleans area but obviously if in future models starts to show strengthening that's a different story. If people are lost, the Euro is showing 92L moving into the gulf but doesn't strengthen it much if at all.

Last Edit: Aug 16, 2017 13:08:02 GMT -6 by coreyl

SKYSUMMIT
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 13:07:38 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' and PinkFreud - Nola FQ like this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 13:07:38 GMT -6

Man, really no organized activity on the GFS today again...every system just kind of poots out on it. Not sure how much confidence I'm having with its outcome.

12z Canadian goes with 92L as a hurricane in to the central Gulf of Mexico.

The 12z Euro also sends what ever 92L may become into the Gulf.

Canadian:

Last Edit: Aug 16, 2017 13:08:55 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,807 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 13:21:21 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 13:21:21 GMT -6 Even though the operational GFS isn't picking up much on 92L, its ensembles are picking up at least a tropical storm entering the Gulf, on a similar track to what both the Canadian and Euro are showing. Something to watch...
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HuRriCAnE miLeS
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 13:49:56 GMT -6 tgrgrd00 likes this

Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Aug 16, 2017 13:49:56 GMT -6

Also of note is that for what it's worth all models are showing another trough dropping down towards the gulf and east coast late that week into the weekend. Tend to believe it as one is forecast for this weekend then another the following. Could be lots of se shear waiting for whatever may come, if it does.

Last Edit: Aug 16, 2017 13:54:08 GMT -6 by HuRriCAnE miLeS

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,807 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 19:46:19 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 19:46:19 GMT -6 00z tropical models and 18z GFS ensembles:
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SKYSUMMIT
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 19:48:45 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 19:48:45 GMT -6

I think 92L is something we really have to watch closely. Even though the GFS isn't picking up on any development, if it takes the course as model envelope suggests, the GFS is showing light upper level winds along its future track and continuing that into the gulf as well.

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SCOT PILIE'
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 20:08:42 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT and Briella - Houma like this

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 16, 2017 20:08:42 GMT -6

Aug 16, 2017 19:48:45 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

I think 92L is something we really have to watch closely. Even though the GFS isn't picking up on any development, if it takes the course as model envelope suggests, the GFS is showing light upper level winds along its future track and continuing that into the gulf as well.

Completely agree. I think the key with the future development of this system...as it has been so far this season...will be the amount of interaction and entertainment of mid-level dry air. Definitely need to keep a close eye on the disturbance down the road!

Last Edit: Aug 16, 2017 20:18:17 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT: fixed quote

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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,807 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 20:41:33 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 20:41:33 GMT -6 92L also has higher PW values and a slightly tighter area of circulation which can be seen here on the MIMIC-TPW2 Animation
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Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,130	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 20:48:16 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, DYLAN FEDERICO, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Aug 16, 2017 20:48:16 GMT -6 Surprised the lack of intensification in the models. Could be a hurricane in the Bahamas.

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 21:42:35 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 16, 2017 21:42:35 GMT -6 00z GFS slightly north, slightly stronger so far
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Siker
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 22:35:15 GMT -6 via mobile SCOT PILIE' likes this

Post by Siker on Aug 16, 2017 22:35:15 GMT -6

UKMET keeps it weak through the TUTT and then has a cane in the southeast Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 57.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2017 60 18.0N 57.0W 1010 30
0000UTC 20.08.2017 72 18.9N 60.5W 1009 30
1200UTC 20.08.2017 84 19.2N 63.7W 1008 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 96 20.1N 66.3W 1006 41
1200UTC 21.08.2017 108 21.0N 68.6W 1003 45
0000UTC 22.08.2017 120 21.6N 70.3W 997 55
1200UTC 22.08.2017 132 22.0N 71.7W 994 58
0000UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 72.7W 989 60

SCOT PILIE' Meteorologist Meteorologist, Coastal Specialist Posts: 484	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 22:38:53 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 16, 2017 22:38:53 GMT -6 In addition, for what it's worth, CMC(Canadian) has exceptionally persistent over the last several runs with an intensifying hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in about 8 days time.
	Last Edit: Aug 16, 2017 22:42:41 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE' Twitter: @scotpilie_Wx Facebook: Meteorologist Scot Pilie' Instagram: @scotpilie_Wx

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 22:51:20 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 16, 2017 22:51:20 GMT -6
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Ten Discussion Thread

Post by Siker on Aug 16, 2017 10:39:19 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 16, 2017 12:29:11 GMT -6

Post by coreyl on Aug 16, 2017 13:06:28 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 13:07:38 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 13:21:21 GMT -6

Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Aug 16, 2017 13:49:56 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 19:46:19 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 19:48:45 GMT -6

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 16, 2017 20:08:42 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 20:41:33 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Aug 16, 2017 20:48:16 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 16, 2017 21:42:35 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 16, 2017 22:35:15 GMT -6

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 16, 2017 22:38:53 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 16, 2017 22:51:20 GMT -6

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