Around that same time frame near the end of those 12z runs above, ridging is forecast by the GFS to be in place. That would force anything to bend back west, and into the Gulf....IF all this is correct, AND 92L actually does something.
And that's what the 12z Canadian and 12z UKMET (if extrapolated) indicate.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.2N 51.1W
Post by hurricaner on Aug 16, 2017 12:29:11 GMT -6
Latest on 92L 40/50%
2. A second area of low pressure is located about 800 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
We've seen enough rain this summer here in south Mississippi and New Orleans area but obviously if in future models starts to show strengthening that's a different story. If people are lost, the Euro is showing 92L moving into the gulf but doesn't strengthen it much if at all.
Man, really no organized activity on the GFS today again...every system just kind of poots out on it. Not sure how much confidence I'm having with its outcome.
12z Canadian goes with 92L as a hurricane in to the central Gulf of Mexico.
The 12z Euro also sends what ever 92L may become into the Gulf.
Canadian:
Last Edit: Aug 16, 2017 13:08:55 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Even though the operational GFS isn't picking up much on 92L, its ensembles are picking up at least a tropical storm entering the Gulf, on a similar track to what both the Canadian and Euro are showing.
Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Aug 16, 2017 13:49:56 GMT -6
Also of note is that for what it's worth all models are showing another trough dropping down towards the gulf and east coast late that week into the weekend. Tend to believe it as one is forecast for this weekend then another the following. Could be lots of se shear waiting for whatever may come, if it does.
I think 92L is something we really have to watch closely. Even though the GFS isn't picking up on any development, if it takes the course as model envelope suggests, the GFS is showing light upper level winds along its future track and continuing that into the gulf as well.
I think 92L is something we really have to watch closely. Even though the GFS isn't picking up on any development, if it takes the course as model envelope suggests, the GFS is showing light upper level winds along its future track and continuing that into the gulf as well.
Completely agree. I think the key with the future development of this system...as it has been so far this season...will be the amount of interaction and entertainment of mid-level dry air. Definitely need to keep a close eye on the disturbance down the road!
Last Edit: Aug 16, 2017 20:18:17 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT: fixed quote
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 16, 2017 22:38:53 GMT -6
In addition, for what it's worth, CMC(Canadian) has exceptionally persistent over the last several runs with an intensifying hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in about 8 days time.
Last Edit: Aug 16, 2017 22:42:41 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'