Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 16, 2017 23:30:44 GMT -6
Any tropical wave that limps into the Bahamas in August, especially with that synoptic set up, needs to be watched closely. We all know what can happen.
Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 16, 2017 23:54:59 GMT -6
Looks like the some of the 0z GFS ensemble memebers are starting to come to life, showing a similar scenario to the CMC & UKMET. I don't understand why the GFS isn't coming on with this. The upper levels look good with a favorable upper trough for outflow channels and otherwise light winds aloft, with very warm SST's. I'll be monitoring 92L closely.
2. A second area of low pressure located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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That run drops the pressure down to 968 before landfall. While Katrina's lowest pressure was 902 and Camille's was 905, this could still be significant. Time will tell.
We need to watch. A trough is supposed to be coming down and it shouldn't take it as far west as Louisiana. But timing is everything. I remember Isaac in 2012 was supposed to go into the Florida panhandle, but it went right over us in Thibodaux.
60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La
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92L could be big time problems down the road. PTC 09 is a prime example. Just like 92L, the GFS isn't picking up much on PTC 09 yet it's forecast to now be a hurricane.
12z GFS still picks up on NOTHING so we look at the steering instead, and that suggests 92L or what ever it may become down the road, will get into the Gulf.
