Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 16, 2017 23:54:59 GMT -6
Looks like the some of the 0z GFS ensemble memebers are starting to come to life, showing a similar scenario to the CMC & UKMET. I don't understand why the GFS isn't coming on with this. The upper levels look good with a favorable upper trough for outflow channels and otherwise light winds aloft, with very warm SST's. I'll be monitoring 92L closely.
2. A second area of low pressure located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
We need to watch. A trough is supposed to be coming down and it shouldn't take it as far west as Louisiana. But timing is everything. I remember Isaac in 2012 was supposed to go into the Florida panhandle, but it went right over us in Thibodaux.
60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La
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