Post by Briella - Houma on Oct 2, 2017 3:16:10 GMT -6
New one.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An elongated surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level low is producing widespread cloudiness and scattered showers across much of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the Yucatan peninsula, Belize, Honduras, and Guatemala. Although surface pressures are unusually low across the region, strong upper-level winds and the large disturbance's proximity to land should prevent any significant organization for the next few days. However, environmental conditions could become a little more favorable for the development of a low pressure system by the end of the week across the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves little or drifts northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Most models are taking into the panhandle. Seems reasonable since there will be a cold front will be here in a week. Don't think it will make it far enough west to be any concern to Louisiana.
Most models are taking into the panhandle. Seems reasonable since there will be a cold front will be here in a week. Don't think it will make it far enough west to be any concern to Louisiana.
Most models are taking into the panhandle. Seems reasonable since there will be a cold front will be here in a week. Don't think it will make it far enough west to be any concern to Louisiana.
When?
I think most models are hinting at 72-120 hrs if it even develops at all. That is for development, not landfall
Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Oct 2, 2017 17:26:03 GMT -6
This broad monsoonal low is eventually going to coalesce into Nate.
Prior runs of the ECM were hot garbage, splitting the gyre into 2 pieces of energy instead of just bundling it into one storm. The 12z ECM does exactly that, sending a tropical storm into the Florida Panhandle this weekend. Both the ECM & GFS Ensembles are much further west than the 12z ECM. I'm worried the models are underestimating the strength of this system and we need to watch this.
I can't believe nobody has posted anything about this.
This broad monsoonal low is eventually going to coalesce into Nate.
Prior runs of the ECM were hot garbage, splitting the gyre into 2 pieces of energy instead of just bundling it into one storm. The 12z ECM does exactly that, sending a tropical storm into the Florida Panhandle this weekend. Both the ECM & GFS Ensembles are much further west than the 12z ECM. I'm worried the models are underestimating the strength of this system and we need to watch this.
I can't believe nobody has posted anything about this.
This broad monsoonal low is eventually going to coalesce into Nate.
Prior runs of the ECM were hot garbage, splitting the gyre into 2 pieces of energy instead of just bundling it into one storm. The 12z ECM does exactly that, sending a tropical storm into the Florida Panhandle this weekend. Both the ECM & GFS Ensembles are much further west than the 12z ECM. I'm worried the models are underestimating the strength of this system and we need to watch this.
I can't believe nobody has posted anything about this.
Yeah I noticed it has been a ghost town even with models showing development in the gulf. I guess everyone is just tired.
Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Oct 2, 2017 17:36:45 GMT -6
Everyone from Louisiana to Florida needs to watch this. Details on track and intensity are very uncertain. With that said, Climatology tells us that Florida has leads the USA with 32 October Hurricane landfalls since 1851, Louisiana is a distant second place with 9.
Details should become clearer this week, but for now lots of inconsistencies with models. But I'm confident something will come out that mess to our south.
I think most of us have been burned out LOL. I know I barely check model guidance on a daily basis right much much less than every 4 hours. Now that one eyebrow has been raised, I guess I should get back into that routine.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
I think most of us have been burned out LOL. I know I barely check model guidance on a daily basis right much much less than every 4 hours. Now that one eyebrow has been raised, I guess I should get back into that routine.
Everyone needs to shake their gas can and use what they have left in the tank. Lol
I think we need to watch this and at least one other storm this year. Pattern in the Atlantic looks very favorable into November. The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet!
I've been watching the models each day, even a few times a day on tropical tibits. But I'm staying in a hotel on the westbank that fema put me in and have been dealing with them and red cross so much lately to post anything about it.
I am not sure if I am reading it correctly, but it looked like the GFS had something over SELA next week that was 1004mb. Not even sure if that is related to this Yucatán system. Let me know.
I am not sure if I am reading it correctly, but it looked like the GFS had something over SELA next week that was 1004mb. Not even sure if that is related to this Yucatán system. Let me know.
Chloe, yep, the last couple of GFS runs brings the Yucatan system, up, toward the central gulf coast. Last night's 00z, had it as a tropical storm, coming into Louisiana, this weekend. The 06z will be coming out, in just a little while.