Finally the GFS is getting on board with the Euro for the tropical wave currently just north of Panama developing over the western Caribbean and then moving northward towards the GOM, too early to say exactly where it will track. With a very warm GOM waters and not so bad forecasted UL winds it is a good possibility of it becoming a hurricane over the GOM. Last night's Euro's ensembles showed a track anywhere from SE LA to the FL big bend area. It will all depend on where exactly the Bermuda ridge which is forecasted to strengthen will set up, the closer it sets up to FL the further west the track will be, the closer to Bermuda it sets up the closer the track of this system will track further east closer to the FL Peninsula.
In case anyone is wondering the waters of the western Caribbean and most of GOM are above average for this time of the year, very warm across the central GOM. 80-86 deg F all across the GOM.
Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Oct 3, 2017 12:02:42 GMT -6
The synoptic pattern says it all. Stout mid-level ridge off the SE US, trof over the Great Plains. Everyone from Louisiana to Florida needs to watch out. GFS/Euro suggest we could have a tropical cyclone as soon as tomorrow.
Not good that the new 12z Euro develops 90L much quicker than previous runs, it could very well become a hurricane before it gets out of the Caribbean.
