Nate Discussion Thread

Finally the GFS is getting on board with the Euro for the tropical wave currently just north of Panama developing over the western Caribbean and then moving northward towards the GOM, too early to say exactly where it will track. With a very warm GOM waters and not so bad forecasted UL winds it is a good possibility of it becoming a hurricane over the GOM.
Last night's Euro's ensembles showed a track anywhere from SE LA to the FL big bend area. It will all depend on where exactly the Bermuda ridge which is forecasted to strengthen will set up, the closer it sets up to FL the further west the track will be, the closer to Bermuda it sets up the closer the track of this system will track further east closer to the FL Peninsula.

To show NDG's point, this is Sunday, from last night's 00z Euro. All eyes now, will be on this afternoon's Euro run.

Will be watching for sure. Models are trending more west towards Louisiana and waters are still quite warm.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad

area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean

Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for

development, and this system could become a tropical depression

within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward

across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into

the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this

system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central

America during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.



2. A trough of low pressure located over Cuba and near the

northwestern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized

showers and gusty winds. Although significant development of this

system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, this system

will likely produce heavy rain and gusty winds over portions of the

Bahamas and Florida during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi

It is now invest 90 L

12z Euro path, trending the same as last night's run.