Nate Discussion Thread

hurricaner
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Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 13:30:22 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 3, 2017 13:30:22 GMT -6

They have a recon flight planned for tomorrow afternoon.

0100 PM EDT TUE 03 OCTOBER 2017

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z OCTOBER 2017

TCPOD NUMBER.....17-124 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS........(CHANGED)

1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF NICARAGUAN COAST)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71

A. 04/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST

C. 04/1400Z

D. 11.5N 82.5W

E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2100Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

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mobileweatherwatcher Category 5 Posts: 2,706	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 13:33:04 GMT -6 via mobile greeneyedgirl, trueblue, and 13 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Oct 3, 2017 13:33:04 GMT -6 Man, I’ll be glad when this hurricane season ends and we start talking about winter weather threats that almost never materialize for us

loogaroo GCWX Supporter Posts: 671	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 13:45:22 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by loogaroo on Oct 3, 2017 13:45:22 GMT -6 ecmwf-oper 2017100312 Forecast slp Java Animation

southernchelle GCWX Supporter Posts: 134	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 14:00:35 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by southernchelle on Oct 3, 2017 14:00:35 GMT -6 The weather channel just talked about it on their '10 to the hour' tropical update.

T-man
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still watching the weather!

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Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 15:56:48 GMT -6 PinkFreud - Nola FQ likes this

Post by T-man on Oct 3, 2017 15:56:48 GMT -6

I'm hoping for a breeze to push the already high water outta here this weekend, not the opposite. I got water almost covering my back yard today, and part of my driveway in the back is already covered with water. If all of this water does not get a chance to leave (and it might not) we are going to see quite a bit of coastal flooding down on the bayou.

Nolasaints GCWX Supporter Posts: 151	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 16:02:31 GMT -6 raginsaint43 likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Nolasaints on Oct 3, 2017 16:02:31 GMT -6 I live in Covington not far from the Tchefuncte River and it is surprisingly high.
	Last Edit: Oct 3, 2017 16:03:02 GMT -6 by Nolasaints

optimist GCWX Supporter Posts: 478	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 16:07:20 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by optimist on Oct 3, 2017 16:07:20 GMT -6 18z GFS = NOLA EURO vs GFS continues.

DYLAN FEDERICO Meteorologist GCWX Supporter Posts: 17,513	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 16:14:09 GMT -6 via mobile Saltmama~Montegut , Louisiana likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Oct 3, 2017 16:14:09 GMT -6 18z GFS is stronger. Landfall still in SE LA.
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WINK Meteorologist

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 16:27:45 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Oct 3, 2017 16:27:45 GMT -6 Oct 3, 2017 16:14:09 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said: 18z GFS is stronger. Landfall still in SE LA. show cat 1 or cat 2 hard to said
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

chloe06 GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,241	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 16:28:25 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by chloe06 on Oct 3, 2017 16:28:25 GMT -6 So I know the Euro is usually more reliable than the GFS, but I feel like we can't rule out the GFS since most of the models are trending in that direction. Am I right?

T-man GCWX Supporter still watching the weather! Posts: 4,502	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 16:31:36 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl, xty624, and 3 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by T-man on Oct 3, 2017 16:31:36 GMT -6 I hope we're all not squirting cheese soon, lol! #Don'tsqueezethecheese
	Last Edit: Oct 3, 2017 16:32:45 GMT -6 by T-man

boudreaux12 Tropical Low Posts: 6	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 16:48:40 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by boudreaux12 on Oct 3, 2017 16:48:40 GMT -6 Oh my gosh!!! Just saw the weather channel so I came straight here. Could you please tell me when will they have a better idea for sure?

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,420 Member is Online	Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 16:54:14 GMT -6 klstiger, dmckendall, and 2 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Oct 3, 2017 16:54:14 GMT -6 Something has to form first. A center of circulation needs to be established.
	Last Edit: Oct 3, 2017 16:57:55 GMT -6 by harpman Blowin' harp!

roz
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Posts: 1,105

Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 17:01:46 GMT -6 PinkFreud - Nola FQ and Saltmama~Montegut , Louisiana like this

Post by roz on Oct 3, 2017 17:01:46 GMT -6

Oct 3, 2017 16:48:40 GMT -6 boudreaux12 said:

Oh my gosh!!! Just saw the weather channel so I came straight here. Could you please tell me when will they have a better idea for sure?

It's like Harpman said, a center needs to form first.
Zack posted this on page 4 and hopefully this will help you: "Difference between the two is where the center consolidates over the NW Caribbean. GFS is west, EURO more east. That is a tough call as far as who is right when you are in the organization stages."

laurahawkins
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Nate Discussion Thread Oct 3, 2017 17:04:46 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by laurahawkins on Oct 3, 2017 17:04:46 GMT -6

Oct 3, 2017 17:01:46 GMT -6 roz said:

Oct 3, 2017 16:48:40 GMT -6 boudreaux12 said:

Oh my gosh!!! Just saw the weather channel so I came straight here. Could you please tell me when will they have a better idea for sure?

When are we estimating that formation would happen?

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

Nate Discussion Thread

Post by hurricaner on Oct 3, 2017 13:30:22 GMT -6

Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Oct 3, 2017 13:33:04 GMT -6

Post by loogaroo on Oct 3, 2017 13:45:22 GMT -6

Post by southernchelle on Oct 3, 2017 14:00:35 GMT -6

Post by T-man on Oct 3, 2017 15:56:48 GMT -6

Post by Nolasaints on Oct 3, 2017 16:02:31 GMT -6

Post by optimist on Oct 3, 2017 16:07:20 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Oct 3, 2017 16:14:09 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Oct 3, 2017 16:27:45 GMT -6

Post by chloe06 on Oct 3, 2017 16:28:25 GMT -6

Post by T-man on Oct 3, 2017 16:31:36 GMT -6

Post by boudreaux12 on Oct 3, 2017 16:48:40 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Oct 3, 2017 16:54:14 GMT -6

Post by roz on Oct 3, 2017 17:01:46 GMT -6

Post by laurahawkins on Oct 3, 2017 17:04:46 GMT -6

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