Nate Discussion Thread

up to 50/70%: nhc 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad
area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should
move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

your talking five six days out. seems like when i start watching they days sometimes a couple weeks out. gfs goes east euro goes west the crazy uncle goes crazy. then a couple days later gfs goes west euro goes east uncle crazy still crazy but following the gfs or the euro with its own twist. so i wonder how this plays out from just a few days. are they going come to a faster agreement or drive every one crazy

I agree ... im on the coast of Terrebonne and its staying high with those winds !

The HWRF isn't exactly the best thing in the world.

You don't want to see it. It will freak you out unnecessarily.