GFS for the first time is showing that 90 mph intensity upon landfall.
Refresh my tired brain ... is this good or bad?
Not good, because it was barely showing a hurricane at landfall until now. It swung a little east, but IMHO, this close to landfall, subtle nuances in models mean little. Watch the NHC track and then watch the storm!
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Sept 13, 2020 16:34:28 GMT -6
It's hard for many to separate emotion from facts. These storms really do affect our lives.
The forecast has always been for a curve to the 'right'. We've all seen many, many storms take a pretty good hook after crossing the river parishes. Would I be surprised at all that it does so and eventually crosses the MS coast? Not at all. I also wouldn't be surprised if it goes west of NOLA.
We can save a lot of stress by just understanding we are not in control of the weather, no computer model will give the perfect output, and no MET will be able to forecast perfectly. We will probably never have enough data collected to get, in my opinion, appreciably better than the NHC does now....unless an Elon Musk type person wants to privatize weather data collection.
Ok sorry if that's too off target.
I am sure like many, I won't be upset with a sooner right turn....all the while not hoping anything bad for anyone else....
Post by grisairgasm on Sept 13, 2020 16:37:32 GMT -6
Zack just indicated what a difficult situation he is in. He was referring to Nate and how that forecast was a bust. We are just encouraging him. It’s a very hard place for a young guy to be but he IS one of the best to be there. Let’s move on. Satellite getting interesting?
Post by grisairgasm on Sept 13, 2020 16:48:10 GMT -6
In the big picture she shure has the comma look I don’t like. Huge moisture feed and trail to the S n E of her. More pulsing or performance coming tonight?
HWRF still looking like it will go east of the city. As Dr. Masters said, this HWRF has recon data from today so, along with the 00z with recon data, may paint a better picture of the east/west saga.
