GFS for the first time is showing that 90 mph intensity upon landfall.
Refresh my tired brain ... is this good or bad?
Not good, because it was barely showing a hurricane at landfall until now. It swung a little east, but IMHO, this close to landfall, subtle nuances in models mean little. Watch the NHC track and then watch the storm!
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Sept 13, 2020 16:34:28 GMT -6
It's hard for many to separate emotion from facts. These storms really do affect our lives.
The forecast has always been for a curve to the 'right'. We've all seen many, many storms take a pretty good hook after crossing the river parishes. Would I be surprised at all that it does so and eventually crosses the MS coast? Not at all. I also wouldn't be surprised if it goes west of NOLA.
We can save a lot of stress by just understanding we are not in control of the weather, no computer model will give the perfect output, and no MET will be able to forecast perfectly. We will probably never have enough data collected to get, in my opinion, appreciably better than the NHC does now....unless an Elon Musk type person wants to privatize weather data collection.
Ok sorry if that's too off target.
I am sure like many, I won't be upset with a sooner right turn....all the while not hoping anything bad for anyone else....
Post by grisairgasm on Sept 13, 2020 16:37:32 GMT -6
Zack just indicated what a difficult situation he is in. He was referring to Nate and how that forecast was a bust. We are just encouraging him. It’s a very hard place for a young guy to be but he IS one of the best to be there. Let’s move on. Satellite getting interesting?
Post by grisairgasm on Sept 13, 2020 16:48:10 GMT -6
In the big picture she shure has the comma look I don’t like. Huge moisture feed and trail to the S n E of her. More pulsing or performance coming tonight?
HWRF still looking like it will go east of the city. As Dr. Masters said, this HWRF has recon data from today so, along with the 00z with recon data, may paint a better picture of the east/west saga.
Shoutbox
frankp: Hey neighbor can u please send me the local Alabama weather forum that you follow, much appreciated… frank
Jan 21, 2023 13:57:45 GMT -6
frankp: Hey neighbor, can u send the the link of the Alabama weather forum you visit, much appreciated
Jan 21, 2023 13:55:49 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
