TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA Discussion Thread

You and me both! I'm about worn out from mopping up that workshop. I'm glad I haven't done much about putting it back together yet. That blob out there has got me worried too, expecting the winds to start coming more out of the south depending on Beta's movement.

Shibumi, that sounds like a very valid theory. Unfortunately, again, my failure to grasp the pure science of this stuff has me at a loss to concur with any degree of certainty. If these storms behaved like humans then I'd be dancing circles around y'all. "Diverging at altitude to continue the convection"? I'm sure Grisairgasm understands what that means, though

The rain off the LA coast would have been catastrophic here . Dutar76 can attest to that. I think any flooding rains will probably be regenerated , and elsewhere, as the week unfolds. I really do not believe the flood threat stuck to our S is the nemesis. We remember all the recent apocalyptic floods associated with stationary cyclones. Typically though, most of the heaviest rains remain off shore with soo many others. This one is a wait and see family. I’m very encouraged on the lack of a widespread rain event imo. The flip side of that is sustained surge flooding flooding with back to back storms that has continued for days upon days. LA continues to be one of the most surge prone areas in the world. Almost becoming seasonal now.

Just saw Mike’s graphic above. Much more reasonable thought process about FFloodng. Throw those 25 color rainfall maps away. Rarely are they accurate. They did do well with Harvey but that was a different setup I find them to be irresponsible, stressful, a poor product and O consistency.

Just have to keep reminding myself that this is still a prolonged event. Somewhere in S LA could be looking at a local training situation possibly Wednesday and maybe even into Thursday. I think Zman (Fradella) says our real threat begins tmrw. Other than the persistent ridiculous rainfall maps, forecasters have done an incredible job despite the complexity. I think rainfall is the only real player left besides coastal surge. And I still don’t think they have a grasp of even the rainfall. What a year.....

Recon on its' way...

AF304 Mission #9 into BETA
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 22:35 UTC Sep 21, 2020:
Aircraft Position: 29.90°N 91.83°W
Bearing: 252° at 335 kt
Altitude: 4505 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 5 kt at 160°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1012.2 mb