HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread

bikerbabe Category 1 Posts: 216	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 5:54:46 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by bikerbabe on Oct 24, 2020 5:54:46 GMT -6 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 6:20:20 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 24, 2020 6:20:20 GMT -6

06 HWRF looks to bring a weak system near the mouth of the river mid-week and into MS/AL border by Thursday. I think it shows a TD but I’ll leave that to more knowledgeable folk.

ndg
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 6:46:55 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, Stacie-Lumberton, MS, and 1 more like this

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 6:46:55 GMT -6

Here we go again. 06z Euro is stronger than its previous 0z run with 95L, same track. This thread is going to light up as people wake up this morning and start looking at the Euro model and its ensembles showing a possible hurricane striking the central Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,576	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 6:49:16 GMT -6 Stacie-Lumberton, MS likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 6:49:16 GMT -6

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,576	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 6:52:48 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 6:52:48 GMT -6 06z GEFS shifted west closer to the Euro ensembles.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,576	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 6:58:07 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 6:58:07 GMT -6 No wonder the Euro likes 95L becoming either a strong TS or Cat 1 Hurricane when it is in the GOM.

cajungal
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 6:58:20 GMT -6 via mobile Stacie-Lumberton, MS likes this

Post by cajungal on Oct 24, 2020 6:58:20 GMT -6

Oct 24, 2020 6:52:48 GMT -6 ndg said:

06z GEFS shifted west closer to the Euro ensembles.

Are you serious? Every time I think we are done. Guess this is Juan part 2. I mean in timeframe. Hoping it won’t bring the flooding Juan did.

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

ndg
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 7:07:16 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 7:07:16 GMT -6

Oct 24, 2020 6:58:20 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Oct 24, 2020 6:52:48 GMT -6 ndg said:

06z GEFS shifted west closer to the Euro ensembles.

Are you serious? Every time I think we are done. Guess this is Juan part 2. I mean in timeframe. Hoping it won’t bring the flooding Juan did.

It should move quickly northward as it approaches the gulf coast.

kennethb GCWX Supporter Posts: 915	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 7:41:51 GMT -6 PinkFreud - Nola FQ, Stacie-Lumberton, MS, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by kennethb on Oct 24, 2020 7:41:51 GMT -6 Its Groundhog Day! Louisiana Style!

homeymandeville
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 8:09:55 GMT -6 via mobile chloe06 likes this

Post by homeymandeville on Oct 24, 2020 8:09:55 GMT -6

Like I posted yesterday afternoon, I would not have cast this off as a system to make landfall along the Florida peninsula. Some were and all I knew was, local NOLA mets were not so sure it would not be an impact to Louisiana. We’ll see, but it appears it may.

weatherboyy
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 8:22:52 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by weatherboyy on Oct 24, 2020 8:22:52 GMT -6

Oct 24, 2020 6:58:20 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Oct 24, 2020 6:52:48 GMT -6 ndg said:

06z GEFS shifted west closer to the Euro ensembles.

Are you serious? Every time I think we are done. Guess this is Juan part 2. I mean in timeframe. Hoping it won’t bring the flooding Juan did.

Nope We not done I love itt😂😂

Last Edit: Oct 24, 2020 8:23:18 GMT -6 by weatherboyy

weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

nolanana GCWX Supporter Posts: 119	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 8:30:24 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolanana on Oct 24, 2020 8:30:24 GMT -6 What kind of Highs, lows, troughs are we looking at with this system? What is going to make it steer whatever direction its going in??

ndg
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 9:22:48 GMT -6 Dutar76 likes this

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 9:22:48 GMT -6

Oct 24, 2020 8:30:24 GMT -6 nolanana said:

What kind of Highs, lows, troughs are we looking at with this system? What is going to make it steer whatever direction its going in??

There is going to be ridge coming out of Mexico that will move over FL Mon-Tuesday, that is what is going to protect the FL Peninsula from this system but at the same will steer 95L towards the south central GOM. An approaching cut off low from the SW US will pull it north towards the central gulf coast, exactly where we don't know yet. Any where from southern LA to the FL Panhandle.

Last Edit: Oct 24, 2020 9:23:22 GMT -6 by ndg

cplay12671
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 9:27:47 GMT -6

Post by cplay12671 on Oct 24, 2020 9:27:47 GMT -6

aww man not another threat, I thought it would all trend to the east twords Fla. now, but then again this is 2020, Can we please just get to 2021 already this is a year people want to forget and or put it to bed already, I'm so done with it !

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,576	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 24, 2020 9:32:59 GMT -6 cplay12671 and geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 9:32:59 GMT -6 It looks to me the LLC is still displaced to the north of the MLC further south. Recon should find it to be at least a TD if not a TS, IMO.

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread

Post by bikerbabe on Oct 24, 2020 5:54:46 GMT -6

Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 24, 2020 6:20:20 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 6:46:55 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 6:49:16 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 6:52:48 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 6:58:07 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Oct 24, 2020 6:58:20 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 7:07:16 GMT -6

Post by kennethb on Oct 24, 2020 7:41:51 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Oct 24, 2020 8:09:55 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Oct 24, 2020 8:22:52 GMT -6

Post by nolanana on Oct 24, 2020 8:30:24 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 9:22:48 GMT -6

Post by cplay12671 on Oct 24, 2020 9:27:47 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 24, 2020 9:32:59 GMT -6

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