Post by grisairgasm on Oct 24, 2020 10:44:30 GMT -6
HUrricane Hunters should be there in about an hour I think. G-IV synoptic NOAA is already scheduled to fly at least 2 missions. This info will be incorporated into models as usual.
Post by hurricaner on Oct 24, 2020 11:53:20 GMT -6
Most likely we will have either TD or TS at 4pm.
Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that an area of low pressure located about 125 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman Island continues to become better organized, and if current trends continue, advisories will be initiated on a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development while the low drifts toward the north and northwest this weekend. The system could move near western Cuba on Monday and move across the southern Gulf of Mexico or the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Interests in western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this low. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and northeastern Yucatan through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 24, 2020 11:54:08 GMT -6 by hurricaner
Post by grisairgasm on Oct 24, 2020 11:59:37 GMT -6
Recon running a little late but should be S of Cuba right now. Does not look very healthy at the moment but won’t be surprised if they find a depression. Just can’t deny that red 100% genesis forecast.I would think that whatever finally moves N or NW will be rocketed out of the Gulf in advance of the next major front. Looks to be all about timing as usual.
Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 24, 2020 12:56:09 GMT -6
Last night, Levi said in his video that this will be a sheared system and that there is a ton of dry air in the GoM, so everything will be off to the east, like with Sally.
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
Can’t say I like that run. I guess it’s going to be a matter of when it scoots N and NE. The earlier models seemed like they weakened in in the N Gulf. This run seems to maintain strength, at a minimum. Does that make sense with water temps?
Post by grisairgasm on Oct 24, 2020 14:06:41 GMT -6
Regardless of the final outcome, this will effectively end the N Gulf season. This will be a major front coming right behind it and should usher a pattern change and significant cooling of waters. November may still be interesting in the Caribbean though. Send this potential Z storm anywhere but SW LA. Enough is enough. Fortunately weather should be good for cleanup and temperature if power outages. Also, hopefully any impact is in a low population area considering elections and disruptions. It’s still early. I would think Monday things will be clearer.
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
gullywasher: Every year I asks the mods to create a Captain Obvious. and a Captain Oblivious icons but I guess no one wants to hurt anyones delicate feelings
Sept 24, 2022 9:31:50 GMT -6
T-man: Well we are looking forward to a cool front, not a scary hurricane, that's for sure!
Sept 24, 2022 8:16:47 GMT -6
