Post by grisairgasm on Oct 24, 2020 10:44:30 GMT -6
HUrricane Hunters should be there in about an hour I think. G-IV synoptic NOAA is already scheduled to fly at least 2 missions. This info will be incorporated into models as usual.
Post by hurricaner on Oct 24, 2020 11:53:20 GMT -6
Most likely we will have either TD or TS at 4pm.
Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that an area of low pressure located about 125 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman Island continues to become better organized, and if current trends continue, advisories will be initiated on a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development while the low drifts toward the north and northwest this weekend. The system could move near western Cuba on Monday and move across the southern Gulf of Mexico or the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Interests in western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this low. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and northeastern Yucatan through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 24, 2020 11:54:08 GMT -6 by hurricaner
Post by grisairgasm on Oct 24, 2020 11:59:37 GMT -6
Recon running a little late but should be S of Cuba right now. Does not look very healthy at the moment but won’t be surprised if they find a depression. Just can’t deny that red 100% genesis forecast.I would think that whatever finally moves N or NW will be rocketed out of the Gulf in advance of the next major front. Looks to be all about timing as usual.
Post by rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish on Oct 24, 2020 12:56:09 GMT -6
Last night, Levi said in his video that this will be a sheared system and that there is a ton of dry air in the GoM, so everything will be off to the east, like with Sally.
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
Can’t say I like that run. I guess it’s going to be a matter of when it scoots N and NE. The earlier models seemed like they weakened in in the N Gulf. This run seems to maintain strength, at a minimum. Does that make sense with water temps?
Post by grisairgasm on Oct 24, 2020 14:06:41 GMT -6
Regardless of the final outcome, this will effectively end the N Gulf season. This will be a major front coming right behind it and should usher a pattern change and significant cooling of waters. November may still be interesting in the Caribbean though. Send this potential Z storm anywhere but SW LA. Enough is enough. Fortunately weather should be good for cleanup and temperature if power outages. Also, hopefully any impact is in a low population area considering elections and disruptions. It’s still early. I would think Monday things will be clearer.
![](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204710_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png")
