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DYLAN FEDERICO GCWX Supporter Meteorologist Posts - 17,499 Likes - 3,447 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:33:32 GMT -6 steen likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:33:32 GMT -6 Latest SREF is going even more nuts!
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WTVM Meteorologist

Randy
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:47:59 GMT -6

Post by Randy on Jan 25, 2014 9:47:59 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2014 9:25:57 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said:

While I agree, the warm layer looks twice as small on this run and with wetbulbing could be why the model shows so much more snow on this run. But the way I look at it is regardless things are looking really NASTY.

I'd like to hear ndg opinion on the NAM skew T's since he's a lot more experienced with them than I am.

I'm used to looking at the skews for ULLs, since that's where the bulk of our snows have come from in the past few winters. The freezing column is sky high when they come around. I just want to see it freezing from the surface to at least 850mb before I get ready for the happy snow dance.

sjbpgal
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:48:10 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal on Jan 25, 2014 9:48:10 GMT -6

I'm not nearly as knowledgeable with reading all the maps and stuff as some of you... but in order for us to get snow, all the lines (isobars) have to completely match up, right? While I'm not excited about the possibility of ANOTHER ice storm 3 days after the last one, knowing all the problems that has caused here, the fact that we're even talking about this again so soon is incredible.

DYLAN FEDERICO GCWX Supporter Meteorologist Posts - 17,499 Likes - 3,447 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:48:19 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:48:19 GMT -6 The 12z GFS is at 60 hours and its picking up the energy. Lets see what happens.
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WTVM Meteorologist

SKYSUMMIT
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:55:10 GMT -6 sjbpgal likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 9:55:10 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2014 9:48:10 GMT -6 sjbpgal said:

I'm not nearly as knowledgeable with reading all the maps and stuff as some of you... but in order for us to get snow, all the lines (isobars) have to completely match up, right? While I'm not excited about the possibility of ANOTHER ice storm 3 days after the last one, knowing all the problems that has caused here, the fact that we're even talking about this again so soon is incredible.

They have to be left of the 0 degree column (and together...together = saturation). That would indicate a complete subfreezing column of air as you go up in the atmosphere. If at any point, they go to the right of the 0 degree line and then go back left, that's a warm layer which is what the NAM is showing. However, that warm layer is much thinner on this run than previous run.

Last Edit: Jan 25, 2014 9:55:37 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

DYLAN FEDERICO GCWX Supporter Meteorologist Posts - 17,499 Likes - 3,447 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:58:48 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:58:48 GMT -6 The GFS refuses to phase the southern stream energy, and honestly it's handling of the system looks suspect.
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WTVM Meteorologist

tgrgrd00 GCWX Supporter Posts - 770 Likes - 334	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 10:03:08 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tgrgrd00 on Jan 25, 2014 10:03:08 GMT -6 Jan 25, 2014 9:33:32 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said: Latest SREF is going even more nuts! About the only model that was close 3 days out last time. Nice. Lots of ice though.
	Last Edit: Jan 25, 2014 10:03:32 GMT -6 by tgrgrd00 View my Weather Station - www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KLALAPLA23

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 59,612 Likes - 9,213 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 10:07:15 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 10:07:15 GMT -6 ...

sjbpgal Category 1 Posts - 383 Likes - 177	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 10:17:16 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by sjbpgal on Jan 25, 2014 10:17:16 GMT -6 Lol Sky! Pretty much sums it up. The models seem to be having trouble with this pattern.

nem1987 GCWX Supporter Posts - 1,716 Likes - 114	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 10:24:36 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nem1987 on Jan 25, 2014 10:24:36 GMT -6 Jan 25, 2014 9:58:48 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said: The GFS refuses to phase the southern stream energy, and honestly it's handling of the system looks suspect. So does the GFS bring us the cold but no precipitation?

ndg
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 10:27:59 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO and southwestla like this

Post by ndg on Jan 25, 2014 10:27:59 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2014 9:25:57 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said:

Jan 25, 2014 9:20:04 GMT -6 Randy said:

The soundings aren't really matching up with the snow depth maps. The freezing column looks only a couple of thousand feet deep. Looks waaaay more icy than snowy to me at this point.

While I agree, the warm layer looks twice as small on this run and with wetbulbing could be why the model shows so much more snow on this run. But the way I look at it is regardless things are looking really NASTY.

I'd like to hear ndg opinion on the NAM skew T's since he's a lot more experienced with them than I am.

Sorry, I have yet to look at this system for Tuesday, I had to get my 10 hr beauty sleep last night ;)
I will be checking at the forecast soundings over the next few minutes, I'll be back.

flora GCWX Supporter Posts - 1,917 Likes - 176	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 10:45:01 GMT -6 Cheshire Cat, harpman, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by flora on Jan 25, 2014 10:45:01 GMT -6 Waiting for NDG's response.. insert Jeopardy Music
	Let it snow, let it snow... let it snooooww

beausoleil
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 10:48:42 GMT -6 ndg, HarahanTim - Now in Covington!, and 2 more like this

Post by beausoleil on Jan 25, 2014 10:48:42 GMT -6

I asked Larry Cosgrove last night on Facebook why the models have so much trouble with these gulf coast winter storms. He says they pick them up just fine, but then when they go through the climatology filter, that tells the model that its not supposed to snow in south Louisiana.

Sort of like it would be 1940 and young meteorologist brings his hand drawn maps to his boss for review, and the boss says, "It doesn't snow in New Orleans. Now go back to work and bring me a forecast that makes some sense!"

BTW, Larry Cosgrove is very patient and understanding in answering questions from the public through his facebook page.

SKYSUMMIT
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 10:50:02 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 10:50:02 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2014 10:48:42 GMT -6 beausoleil said:

I asked Larry Cosgrove last night on Facebook why the models have so much trouble with these gulf coast winter storms. He says they pick them up just fine, but then when they go through the climatology filter, that tells the model that its not supposed to snow in south Louisiana.

Sort of like it would be 1940 and young meteorologist brings his hand drawn maps to his boss for review, and the boss says, "It doesn't snow in New Orleans. Now go back to work and bring me a forecast that makes some sense!"

BTW, Larry Cosgrove is very patient and understanding in answering questions from the public through his facebook page.

Dang, that's interesting. I never knew there was such a thing as a "climatology filter". Interesting.

beausoleil
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 10:53:00 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT likes this

Post by beausoleil on Jan 25, 2014 10:53:00 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2014 10:50:02 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Jan 25, 2014 10:48:42 GMT -6 beausoleil said:

I asked Larry Cosgrove last night on Facebook why the models have so much trouble with these gulf coast winter storms. He says they pick them up just fine, but then when they go through the climatology filter, that tells the model that its not supposed to snow in south Louisiana.

Sort of like it would be 1940 and young meteorologist brings his hand drawn maps to his boss for review, and the boss says, "It doesn't snow in New Orleans. Now go back to work and bring me a forecast that makes some sense!"

BTW, Larry Cosgrove is very patient and understanding in answering questions from the public through his facebook page.

Dang, that's interesting. I never knew there was such a thing as a "climatology filter". Interesting.

Let me make it clear that he did not use the term "climatology filter". That is the term I used to describe what he said. He says climatology tells the models that its not supposed to snow here, and tends to filter out these storms as not being consistent with what is supposed to happen.

January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:33:32 GMT -6

Post by Randy on Jan 25, 2014 9:47:59 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal on Jan 25, 2014 9:48:10 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:48:19 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 9:55:10 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:58:48 GMT -6

Post by tgrgrd00 on Jan 25, 2014 10:03:08 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 10:07:15 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal on Jan 25, 2014 10:17:16 GMT -6

Post by nem1987 on Jan 25, 2014 10:24:36 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jan 25, 2014 10:27:59 GMT -6

Post by flora on Jan 25, 2014 10:45:01 GMT -6

Post by beausoleil on Jan 25, 2014 10:48:42 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 10:50:02 GMT -6

Post by beausoleil on Jan 25, 2014 10:53:00 GMT -6

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