While I agree, the warm layer looks twice as small on this run and with wetbulbing could be why the model shows so much more snow on this run. But the way I look at it is regardless things are looking really NASTY.
I'd like to hear ndg opinion on the NAM skew T's since he's a lot more experienced with them than I am.
I'm used to looking at the skews for ULLs, since that's where the bulk of our snows have come from in the past few winters. The freezing column is sky high when they come around. I just want to see it freezing from the surface to at least 850mb before I get ready for the happy snow dance.
Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jan 25, 2014 9:48:10 GMT -6
I'm not nearly as knowledgeable with reading all the maps and stuff as some of you... but in order for us to get snow, all the lines (isobars) have to completely match up, right? While I'm not excited about the possibility of ANOTHER ice storm 3 days after the last one, knowing all the problems that has caused here, the fact that we're even talking about this again so soon is incredible.
I'm not nearly as knowledgeable with reading all the maps and stuff as some of you... but in order for us to get snow, all the lines (isobars) have to completely match up, right? While I'm not excited about the possibility of ANOTHER ice storm 3 days after the last one, knowing all the problems that has caused here, the fact that we're even talking about this again so soon is incredible.
They have to be left of the 0 degree column (and together...together = saturation). That would indicate a complete subfreezing column of air as you go up in the atmosphere. If at any point, they go to the right of the 0 degree line and then go back left, that's a warm layer which is what the NAM is showing. However, that warm layer is much thinner on this run than previous run.
Last Edit: Jan 25, 2014 9:55:37 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
The soundings aren't really matching up with the snow depth maps. The freezing column looks only a couple of thousand feet deep. Looks waaaay more icy than snowy to me at this point.
While I agree, the warm layer looks twice as small on this run and with wetbulbing could be why the model shows so much more snow on this run. But the way I look at it is regardless things are looking really NASTY.
I'd like to hear ndg opinion on the NAM skew T's since he's a lot more experienced with them than I am.
Sorry, I have yet to look at this system for Tuesday, I had to get my 10 hr beauty sleep last night I will be checking at the forecast soundings over the next few minutes, I'll be back.
Post by beausoleil on Jan 25, 2014 10:48:42 GMT -6
I asked Larry Cosgrove last night on Facebook why the models have so much trouble with these gulf coast winter storms. He says they pick them up just fine, but then when they go through the climatology filter, that tells the model that its not supposed to snow in south Louisiana.
Sort of like it would be 1940 and young meteorologist brings his hand drawn maps to his boss for review, and the boss says, "It doesn't snow in New Orleans. Now go back to work and bring me a forecast that makes some sense!"
BTW, Larry Cosgrove is very patient and understanding in answering questions from the public through his facebook page.
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
I asked Larry Cosgrove last night on Facebook why the models have so much trouble with these gulf coast winter storms. He says they pick them up just fine, but then when they go through the climatology filter, that tells the model that its not supposed to snow in south Louisiana.
Sort of like it would be 1940 and young meteorologist brings his hand drawn maps to his boss for review, and the boss says, "It doesn't snow in New Orleans. Now go back to work and bring me a forecast that makes some sense!"
BTW, Larry Cosgrove is very patient and understanding in answering questions from the public through his facebook page.
Dang, that's interesting. I never knew there was such a thing as a "climatology filter". Interesting.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
I asked Larry Cosgrove last night on Facebook why the models have so much trouble with these gulf coast winter storms. He says they pick them up just fine, but then when they go through the climatology filter, that tells the model that its not supposed to snow in south Louisiana.
Sort of like it would be 1940 and young meteorologist brings his hand drawn maps to his boss for review, and the boss says, "It doesn't snow in New Orleans. Now go back to work and bring me a forecast that makes some sense!"
BTW, Larry Cosgrove is very patient and understanding in answering questions from the public through his facebook page.
Dang, that's interesting. I never knew there was such a thing as a "climatology filter". Interesting.
Let me make it clear that he did not use the term "climatology filter". That is the term I used to describe what he said. He says climatology tells the models that its not supposed to snow here, and tends to filter out these storms as not being consistent with what is supposed to happen.
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frankp: Hey neighbor can u please send me the local Alabama weather forum that you follow, much appreciated… frank
Jan 21, 2023 13:57:45 GMT -6
frankp: Hey neighbor, can u send the the link of the Alabama weather forum you visit, much appreciated
Jan 21, 2023 13:55:49 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
