Gert Discussion Thread

You have too much... too much... See what happens when you go on vacation!

12z UKMET:

The GFS continues to trend SW & stronger.

Category 4 moving into the Turks & Caicos in a little over a week.

Looks like this one may be the first real storm of the season!

The western lobe near 10N/30W is certainly the more convectively active of the two. Wish we could get an ASCAT pass over it (I hear one should be coming up soon). A very recent pass shows the low the NHC has for the center further east:



However, vorticity is on the increase for the area further to the west, as well as surface convergence. The GFS has consistently shown the two areas merging in the next 36 hours, but it has more noticeably shown this area absorbing the area further east for its last two runs. I don't know any of the implications of this change; just interesting.