It seems like every time we get out hopes up over something big to track, it fades out. Still hoping for an interesting mid August-october.
No.. it's more that in our society where everything has to be instant, people don't bother to wait for multiple model runs and things to get closer. They go by one day of runs and scream storm cancel.
I don't think anyone is saying "storm cancel". I think in the early going we have had a pattern of models showing something big ("That could flood the entire West Bank!") and then ultimately nothing happens because these are just that.....models. I refer everyone to Zack's article on the home page where he states that anything shown by the models beyond 5 days is just throwing darts.
Personally, I'm glad we have nothing big to track; I'm not a big fan of destruction, peril, and death by hurricane.
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Change from previous Euro runs is that shear looks pretty darn favorable once this is in the vicinity of Hispaniola and Cuba and beyond into the Gulf. Dry air and land entanglement probably preventing development there this run but will need to keep an eye on this.
This is the system the US has to watch if it develops and tracks north of south of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda ridge will take its usual position in a week or so through the following week creating a weakness across the SE US or gulf coast.
This is the system the US has to watch if it develops and tracks north of south of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda ridge will take its usual position in a week or so through the following week creating a weakness across the SE US or gulf coast.
By 'usual position' do you mean by Burmuda? Or Florida?
Euro now develops this northeast of Hispaniola. The saga of Hermine 2.0 continues. CMC intensifies in the same area. UKMET also develops late further north:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 25.8N 66.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 12.08.2017 144 25.8N 66.8W 1011 35
Somebody needs to let Trump know how horrible the upgraded GFS still is, a tax payer's waste of money, is an embarrassment that the Europeans can still do a better job with their model.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
