It seems like every time we get out hopes up over something big to track, it fades out. Still hoping for an interesting mid August-october.
No.. it's more that in our society where everything has to be instant, people don't bother to wait for multiple model runs and things to get closer. They go by one day of runs and scream storm cancel.
I don't think anyone is saying "storm cancel". I think in the early going we have had a pattern of models showing something big ("That could flood the entire West Bank!") and then ultimately nothing happens because these are just that.....models. I refer everyone to Zack's article on the home page where he states that anything shown by the models beyond 5 days is just throwing darts.
Personally, I'm glad we have nothing big to track; I'm not a big fan of destruction, peril, and death by hurricane.
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Change from previous Euro runs is that shear looks pretty darn favorable once this is in the vicinity of Hispaniola and Cuba and beyond into the Gulf. Dry air and land entanglement probably preventing development there this run but will need to keep an eye on this.
12z HWRF starts to get things going as it approaches Puerto Rico. By the end of the run:
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
This is the system the US has to watch if it develops and tracks north of south of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda ridge will take its usual position in a week or so through the following week creating a weakness across the SE US or gulf coast.
This is the system the US has to watch if it develops and tracks north of south of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda ridge will take its usual position in a week or so through the following week creating a weakness across the SE US or gulf coast.
By 'usual position' do you mean by Burmuda? Or Florida?
18z GFS is still bringing what's left over of 99L into the Gulf, but not showing development once there.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Euro now develops this northeast of Hispaniola. The saga of Hermine 2.0 continues. CMC intensifies in the same area. UKMET also develops late further north:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 25.8N 66.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 12.08.2017 144 25.8N 66.8W 1011 35
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Somebody needs to let Trump know how horrible the upgraded GFS still is, a tax payer's waste of money, is an embarrassment that the Europeans can still do a better job with their model.
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Still nothing on the 18z GFS. Here's the wave axis on Saturday:
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
The NHC finally lowers 99L to a lemon. No 18z tropical models were run today either.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Shoutbox
frankp: Hey neighbor can u please send me the local Alabama weather forum that you follow, much appreciated… frank
Jan 21, 2023 13:57:45 GMT -6
frankp: Hey neighbor, can u send the the link of the Alabama weather forum you visit, much appreciated
Jan 21, 2023 13:55:49 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
