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nolasim
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 10:15:45 GMT -6 tgrgrd00 and allicat1214 like this

Post by nolasim on Aug 5, 2017 10:15:45 GMT -6

Aug 5, 2017 4:29:11 GMT -6 CajunWX said:

Aug 4, 2017 22:20:49 GMT -6 cajungal said:

It seems like every time we get out hopes up over something big to track, it fades out. Still hoping for an interesting mid August-october.

No.. it's more that in our society where everything has to be instant, people don't bother to wait for multiple model runs and things to get closer. They go by one day of runs and scream storm cancel.

I don't think anyone is saying "storm cancel". I think in the early going we have had a pattern of models showing something big ("That could flood the entire West Bank!") and then ultimately nothing happens because these are just that.....models. I refer everyone to Zack's article on the home page where he states that anything shown by the models beyond 5 days is just throwing darts.

Personally, I'm glad we have nothing big to track; I'm not a big fan of destruction, peril, and death by hurricane.

"My name is Jim, but my friends call me...............Jim."

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Online Posts - 59,637 Likes - 9,272 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 10:23:02 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2017 10:23:02 GMT -6 12z GFS continues to shred 99L as it moves WNW.

Siker
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 12:53:44 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Siker on Aug 5, 2017 12:53:44 GMT -6

Change from previous Euro runs is that shear looks pretty darn favorable once this is in the vicinity of Hispaniola and Cuba and beyond into the Gulf. Dry air and land entanglement probably preventing development there this run but will need to keep an eye on this.

Last Edit: Aug 5, 2017 12:53:59 GMT -6 by Siker

coreyl Category 2 Posts - 512 Likes - 13	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 13:05:00 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by coreyl on Aug 5, 2017 13:05:00 GMT -6 You can track the vorticity all the way into the gulf on the 12z Euro but it really never does much with it.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Online Posts - 59,637 Likes - 9,272 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 13:11:03 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2017 13:11:03 GMT -6 12z HWRF starts to get things going as it approaches Puerto Rico. By the end of the run:

ndg
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 13:21:38 GMT -6 nolasim and SKYSUMMIT like this

Post by ndg on Aug 5, 2017 13:21:38 GMT -6

This is the system the US has to watch if it develops and tracks north of south of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda ridge will take its usual position in a week or so through the following week creating a weakness across the SE US or gulf coast.

coffeecups
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 15:26:25 GMT -6

Post by coffeecups on Aug 5, 2017 15:26:25 GMT -6

Aug 5, 2017 13:21:38 GMT -6 ndg said:

This is the system the US has to watch if it develops and tracks north of south of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda ridge will take its usual position in a week or so through the following week creating a weakness across the SE US or gulf coast.

By 'usual position' do you mean by Burmuda? Or Florida?

coreyl Category 2 Posts - 512 Likes - 13	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 16:00:17 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by coreyl on Aug 5, 2017 16:00:17 GMT -6 Through 102 Hours on the 18z GFS, not much going on with 99L.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Online Posts - 59,637 Likes - 9,272 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 16:31:57 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2017 16:31:57 GMT -6 18z GFS is still bringing what's left over of 99L into the Gulf, but not showing development once there.

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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 5, 2017 20:17:43 GMT -6 pcolasky, allicat1214, and 1 more like this

Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2017 20:17:43 GMT -6

Aug 5, 2017 10:15:45 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Aug 5, 2017 4:29:11 GMT -6 CajunWX said:

Personally, I'm glad we have nothing big to track; I'm not a big fan of destruction, peril, and death by hurricane.

Thank you. I truly appreciate that statement.

Siker
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 6, 2017 0:48:20 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Siker on Aug 6, 2017 0:48:20 GMT -6

Euro now develops this northeast of Hispaniola. The saga of Hermine 2.0 continues. CMC intensifies in the same area. UKMET also develops late further north:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 25.8N 66.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2017 144 25.8N 66.8W 1011 35

Last Edit: Aug 6, 2017 0:48:35 GMT -6 by Siker

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Online Posts - 59,637 Likes - 9,272 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 6, 2017 10:20:00 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 6, 2017 10:20:00 GMT -6 Still no support on the 12z GFS.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts - 7,759 Likes - 3,262 Social: - Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 6, 2017 12:21:31 GMT -6 via mobile harpman, DYLAN FEDERICO, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Aug 6, 2017 12:21:31 GMT -6 Somebody needs to let Trump know how horrible the upgraded GFS still is, a tax payer's waste of money, is an embarrassment that the Europeans can still do a better job with their model.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Online Posts - 59,637 Likes - 9,272 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 6, 2017 16:12:49 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 6, 2017 16:12:49 GMT -6 Still nothing on the 18z GFS. Here's the wave axis on Saturday:

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Online Posts - 59,637 Likes - 9,272 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 6, 2017 18:16:47 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 6, 2017 18:16:47 GMT -6 The NHC finally lowers 99L to a lemon. No 18z tropical models were run today either.

Gert Discussion Thread

Post by nolasim on Aug 5, 2017 10:15:45 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2017 10:23:02 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 5, 2017 12:53:44 GMT -6

Post by coreyl on Aug 5, 2017 13:05:00 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2017 13:11:03 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 5, 2017 13:21:38 GMT -6

Post by coffeecups on Aug 5, 2017 15:26:25 GMT -6

Post by coreyl on Aug 5, 2017 16:00:17 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2017 16:31:57 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2017 20:17:43 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 6, 2017 0:48:20 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 6, 2017 10:20:00 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 6, 2017 12:21:31 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 6, 2017 16:12:49 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 6, 2017 18:16:47 GMT -6

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