Gert Discussion Thread

No. That's a separate system. Ignore the models sending this one out to sea. It's too early to know any of that.

So the 00z Euro and most of its ensembles failed to develop this due to what looks like dry air, but the rest of the models are hanging on for now. This is literally exactly what happened with 99L (later Hermine) last year, in the same spot.

12z GFS and CMC look to maintain a track north of the islands as a hurricane.

UKMET with an intensifying hurricane entering the Caribbean:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.9N 33.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2017 48 11.9N 34.9W 1008 33
0000UTC 06.08.2017 60 12.5N 37.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 06.08.2017 72 13.3N 40.1W 1003 39
0000UTC 07.08.2017 84 13.9N 43.0W 1001 43
1200UTC 07.08.2017 96 14.1N 46.2W 1001 40
0000UTC 08.08.2017 108 14.4N 49.4W 1000 42
1200UTC 08.08.2017 120 14.8N 52.7W 999 43
0000UTC 09.08.2017 132 15.6N 56.2W 997 49
1200UTC 09.08.2017 144 16.4N 59.9W 993 61

I am quite confident this will likely develop. We are at a crossroads as to different scenarios. Either a system that achieves tropical storm status but then fails to deepen and possibly even dissipates, or a long-tracked Cape Verde hurricane. Given that the waters are hot and we are now in August, either is possible. Of course, it could also fail to develop, but I kind of doubt that.