Gert Discussion Thread

DYLAN FEDERICO
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 2, 2017 22:55:39 GMT -6 Briella - Houma, SCOT PILIE', and 1 more like this

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 2, 2017 22:55:39 GMT -6

The angle that this needs to be looked at is the 0z GFS/CMC have a Cape Verde hurricane just north of the Greater Antilles in 10 days. The models also agree on a pretty potent Bermuda ridge that could steer this towards land in the long range. The UKMET also has the system but is much further south, and the 0z ECM has yet to come out but is also showing a similar scenario.

This needs to watched closely, especially when you consider the CMC/GFS has a significant tendency for right leaning tracks in the longer range.

Last Edit: Aug 13, 2017 14:32:04 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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Siker
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 2, 2017 23:09:02 GMT -6 via mobile Briella - Houma and SCOT PILIE' like this

Post by Siker on Aug 2, 2017 23:09:02 GMT -6

Expect this to get invested sometime tomorrow once it's fully over water.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the west coast of
Africa is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by early next week over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west-
northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Last Edit: Aug 2, 2017 23:09:48 GMT -6 by Siker

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 5:20:04 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 5:20:04 GMT -6 Invest 99L As of 06:00 UTC Aug 03, 2017: Location: 10.0°N 17.2°W Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb Radius of Circulation: 150 NM Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 5:22:49 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 5:22:49 GMT -6
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 5:44:24 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 5:44:24 GMT -6

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

chloe06 GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,241	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 6:07:04 GMT -6 via the ProBoards App VERticalnoGO likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by chloe06 on Aug 3, 2017 6:07:04 GMT -6 Wasn't this the one going into the Bay of Campeche? Why are most of the models turning out to sea?

Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 6:07:44 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 6:07:44 GMT -6

Aug 3, 2017 6:07:04 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Wasn't this the one going into the Bay of Campeche? Why are most of the models turning out to sea?

No. That's a separate system. Ignore the models sending this one out to sea. It's too early to know any of that.

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

hurricaner
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 6:14:15 GMT -6 Briella - Houma likes this

Post by hurricaner on Aug 3, 2017 6:14:15 GMT -6

Aug 3, 2017 6:07:44 GMT -6 Briella - Houma said:

Aug 3, 2017 6:07:04 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Wasn't this the one going into the Bay of Campeche? Why are most of the models turning out to sea?

No. That's a separate system. Ignore the models sending this one out to sea. It's too early to know any of that.

Plus the two models that send it out to sea have a very weird path first turning it WSW and suddenly turning it north with a 90 deg change in direction not a normal move.

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Siker
Category 3

Posts: 760

Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 6:44:31 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 6:44:31 GMT -6

So the 00z Euro and most of its ensembles failed to develop this due to what looks like dry air, but the rest of the models are hanging on for now. This is literally exactly what happened with 99L (later Hermine) last year, in the same spot.

VERticalnoGO
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Posts: 498

Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 7:34:38 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by VERticalnoGO on Aug 3, 2017 7:34:38 GMT -6

Aug 3, 2017 6:07:44 GMT -6 Briella - Houma said:

Aug 3, 2017 6:07:04 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Wasn't this the one going into the Bay of Campeche? Why are most of the models turning out to sea?

No. That's a separate system. Ignore the models sending this one out to sea. It's too early to know any of that.

At one point this season, someone gave a brief -- but great -- overview of each of the models (i.e. "Models" for Dummies). If you're out there and recall, please repost whenever you have a sec. I'd love to copy it and have it on hand for reference. Thanks!

"The Hilton was a HOT commodity"

Siker
Category 3

Posts: 760

Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 10:23:49 GMT -6 via mobile DYLAN FEDERICO and SCOT PILIE' like this

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 10:23:49 GMT -6

12z GFS and CMC look to maintain a track north of the islands as a hurricane.

UKMET with an intensifying hurricane entering the Caribbean:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.9N 33.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2017 48 11.9N 34.9W 1008 33
0000UTC 06.08.2017 60 12.5N 37.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 06.08.2017 72 13.3N 40.1W 1003 39
0000UTC 07.08.2017 84 13.9N 43.0W 1001 43
1200UTC 07.08.2017 96 14.1N 46.2W 1001 40
0000UTC 08.08.2017 108 14.4N 49.4W 1000 42
1200UTC 08.08.2017 120 14.8N 52.7W 999 43
0000UTC 09.08.2017 132 15.6N 56.2W 997 49
1200UTC 09.08.2017 144 16.4N 59.9W 993 61

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 11:23:27 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 11:23:27 GMT -6 HWRF is bombing so far
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Mike Naso
Official Contributor

Posts: 1,130

Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 11:46:13 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Aug 3, 2017 11:46:13 GMT -6

I am quite confident this will likely develop. We are at a crossroads as to different scenarios. Either a system that achieves tropical storm status but then fails to deepen and possibly even dissipates, or a long-tracked Cape Verde hurricane. Given that the waters are hot and we are now in August, either is possible. Of course, it could also fail to develop, but I kind of doubt that.

Siker
Category 3

Posts: 760

Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 11:51:02 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 11:51:02 GMT -6

A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system
is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers more than 300
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week over the
eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast
to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 3, 2017 12:10:11 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 12:10:11 GMT -6
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

Gert Discussion Thread

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 2, 2017 22:55:39 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 2, 2017 23:09:02 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 5:20:04 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 5:22:49 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 5:44:24 GMT -6

Post by chloe06 on Aug 3, 2017 6:07:04 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 6:07:44 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 3, 2017 6:14:15 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 6:44:31 GMT -6

Post by VERticalnoGO on Aug 3, 2017 7:34:38 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 10:23:49 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 11:23:27 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Aug 3, 2017 11:46:13 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 11:51:02 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 12:10:11 GMT -6

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