Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 2, 2017 22:55:39 GMT -6
The angle that this needs to be looked at is the 0z GFS/CMC have a Cape Verde hurricane just north of the Greater Antilles in 10 days. The models also agree on a pretty potent Bermuda ridge that could steer this towards land in the long range. The UKMET also has the system but is much further south, and the 0z ECM has yet to come out but is also showing a similar scenario.
This needs to watched closely, especially when you consider the CMC/GFS has a significant tendency for right leaning tracks in the longer range.
Last Edit: Aug 13, 2017 14:32:04 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Expect this to get invested sometime tomorrow once it's fully over water.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the west coast of Africa is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west- northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Wasn't this the one going into the Bay of Campeche? Why are most of the models turning out to sea?
No. That's a separate system. Ignore the models sending this one out to sea. It's too early to know any of that.
Plus the two models that send it out to sea have a very weird path first turning it WSW and suddenly turning it north with a 90 deg change in direction not a normal move.
So the 00z Euro and most of its ensembles failed to develop this due to what looks like dry air, but the rest of the models are hanging on for now. This is literally exactly what happened with 99L (later Hermine) last year, in the same spot.
Wasn't this the one going into the Bay of Campeche? Why are most of the models turning out to sea?
No. That's a separate system. Ignore the models sending this one out to sea. It's too early to know any of that.
At one point this season, someone gave a brief -- but great -- overview of each of the models (i.e. "Models" for Dummies). If you're out there and recall, please repost whenever you have a sec. I'd love to copy it and have it on hand for reference. Thanks!
I am quite confident this will likely develop. We are at a crossroads as to different scenarios. Either a system that achieves tropical storm status but then fails to deepen and possibly even dissipates, or a long-tracked Cape Verde hurricane. Given that the waters are hot and we are now in August, either is possible. Of course, it could also fail to develop, but I kind of doubt that.
A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers more than 300 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.