Gert Discussion Thread

12Z GFS coming in drastically further west & weaker with 99L rolling through the Greater Antilles with its sights set on the Gulf of Mexico on this run!

Remember....this system is still 6-7 days away from the Lesser Antilles.

Chances of development beyond a TD / weak TS in the near term have gone down. Question is what survives beyond 60W and what conditions are there to meet it.

00z rolling

In the Caribbean, passing south of Puerto Rico through hour 132...MUCH weaker from the 18z run. Now let's see what happens from here as it should move across Haiti toward Cuba.

It seems like every time we get out hopes up over something big to track, it fades out. Still hoping for an interesting mid August-october.

No.. it's more that in our society where everything has to be instant, people don't bother to wait for multiple model runs and things to get closer. They go by one day of runs and scream storm cancel.