Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for this system to consolidate and develop during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 4, 2017 10:40:45 GMT -6
12Z GFS coming in drastically further west & weaker with 99L rolling through the Greater Antilles with its sights set on the Gulf of Mexico on this run!
Remember....this system is still 6-7 days away from the Lesser Antilles.
Last Edit: Aug 4, 2017 10:50:56 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'
12Z GFS coming in drastically further west with 99L rolling through the Greater Antilles with its sights set on the Gulf of Mexico on this run!
Remember....this system is still 6-7 days away from the Lesser Antilles.
Chances of development beyond a TD / weak TS in the near term have gone down. Question is what survives beyond 60W and what conditions are there to meet it.
In the Caribbean, passing south of Puerto Rico through hour 132...MUCH weaker from the 18z run. Now let's see what happens from here as it should move across Haiti toward Cuba.
It seems like every time we get out hopes up over something big to track, it fades out. Still hoping for an interesting mid August-october.
No.. it's more that in our society where everything has to be instant, people don't bother to wait for multiple model runs and things to get closer. They go by one day of runs and scream storm cancel.
It seems like every time we get out hopes up over something big to track, it fades out. Still hoping for an interesting mid August-october.
No.. it's more that in our society where everything has to be instant, people don't bother to wait for multiple model runs and things to get closer. They go by one day of runs and scream storm cancel.
Def not saying storm cancel. It is only the beginning of August. We didn't even get in the heart of the season.
06z HRWF is much weaker. Euro might be right all along from its past few runs, there's still a lot of dust over the tropical atlantic that it will have to fight with over the next few days.
