Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 4, 2017 5:53:21 GMT -6
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for this system to consolidate and develop during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 4, 2017 10:40:45 GMT -6
12Z GFS coming in drastically further west & weaker with 99L rolling through the Greater Antilles with its sights set on the Gulf of Mexico on this run!
Remember....this system is still 6-7 days away from the Lesser Antilles.
Last Edit: Aug 4, 2017 10:50:56 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'
12Z GFS coming in drastically further west with 99L rolling through the Greater Antilles with its sights set on the Gulf of Mexico on this run!
Remember....this system is still 6-7 days away from the Lesser Antilles.
Chances of development beyond a TD / weak TS in the near term have gone down. Question is what survives beyond 60W and what conditions are there to meet it.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
00z a little weaker and a tad farther south and west through 84 hours.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
In the Caribbean, passing south of Puerto Rico through hour 132...MUCH weaker from the 18z run. Now let's see what happens from here as it should move across Haiti toward Cuba.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Well, so far it looks like 99L gets shredded as it crosses the big islands. Nothing to see here LOL
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
It seems like every time we get out hopes up over something big to track, it fades out. Still hoping for an interesting mid August-october.
No.. it's more that in our society where everything has to be instant, people don't bother to wait for multiple model runs and things to get closer. They go by one day of runs and scream storm cancel.
It seems like every time we get out hopes up over something big to track, it fades out. Still hoping for an interesting mid August-october.
No.. it's more that in our society where everything has to be instant, people don't bother to wait for multiple model runs and things to get closer. They go by one day of runs and scream storm cancel.
Def not saying storm cancel. It is only the beginning of August. We didn't even get in the heart of the season.
06z HRWF is much weaker. Euro might be right all along from its past few runs, there's still a lot of dust over the tropical atlantic that it will have to fight with over the next few days.
Shoutbox
frankp: Hey neighbor can u please send me the local Alabama weather forum that you follow, much appreciated… frank
Jan 21, 2023 13:57:45 GMT -6
frankp: Hey neighbor, can u send the the link of the Alabama weather forum you visit, much appreciated
Jan 21, 2023 13:55:49 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
