Somebody needs to let Trump know how horrible the upgraded GFS still is, a tax payer's waste of money, is an embarrassment that the Europeans can still do a better job with their model.
If it's contracted out... all we will ever get is BEST EFFORT.
I know federal employees are a dirty word in current political climate, but by putting IT in contractor hands there is no vested interest in getting it right or robust.
Jus my two cents.
I need to research that. It is downright embarrassing that it's not up to par.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 300 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017
.DISCUSSION... Short term (Tonight-Wednesday)...a large and deep high pressure system remains centered over the western Atlantic and keeping a typical summer time weather pattern across the Florida peninsula. Expect e/se flow and few to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours each day. Winds could be breezy at times, especially near the east coast.
Afternoon temperatures will remain warm, mainly in the lower 90s. Some mid to upper 90s are possible over interior areas. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s, with some coastal locations in the low 80s.
Long term (Wednesday night-Sunday)...model guidance continue to depict a developing upper level trough moving across the state late Thursday and into Friday, bringing increasing deep layer moisture and more upper level support for enhanced convection, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some storms may become severe, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Once the upper trough move away from the area, the high pressure over the Atlantic expands again into South Florida, with more typical summer time weather through the weekend.
At least they're running tropical models again. Here are the 18z intensity runs...all showing a steady organization but we know to take these with a grain of salt.
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/07/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 36 41 45 48 53 56 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 36 41 45 48 53 56 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 25 26 28 32 36 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.74 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 180.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 51.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 33 36 41 45 48 53 56 60 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 31 34 39 43 46 51 54 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 29 34 38 41 46 49 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 22 27 31 34 39 42 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
Last Edit: Aug 7, 2017 14:16:34 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Aug 7, 2017 15:11:46 GMT -6
Since it was the euro that nailed Franklin before the gfs even had a clue of what was going on this perks up my interest just a little bit. Haven't looked at trough vs high lately but seems like every 7 days one is along the east coast so it's probably due.
Looks like the NHC maybe buying into the EURO percentages are 0/30%.
A trough of low pressure located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is not expected during the next few days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, some development of this system is possible this weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
00z Euro continued with development of this north of the Caribbean. No threat to the Gulf; models are in agreement that a large trough will be draped over the Southeast in a week
99L appears to be getting better organized and the percentages are up 10/50%.
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands has continued to increase slightly in organization since yesterday. While development should be slow to occur due to unfavorable environmental conditions, the environment is forecast to improve by this weekend while the trough moves northwestward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
I might sound crazy, but 99L has an eerie trajectory that reminds me of Andrew and the K storm. Especially reminiscence of Katrina, the way that ULL is positioned.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator