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shelbysmom
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 6, 2017 19:30:20 GMT -6

Post by shelbysmom on Aug 6, 2017 19:30:20 GMT -6

Aug 6, 2017 12:21:31 GMT -6 ndg said:

Somebody needs to let Trump know how horrible the upgraded GFS still is, a tax payer's waste of money, is an embarrassment that the Europeans can still do a better job with their model.

If it's contracted out... all we will ever get is BEST EFFORT.

I know federal employees are a dirty word in current political climate, but by putting IT in contractor hands there is no vested interest in getting it right or robust.

Jus my two cents.

I need to research that. It is downright embarrassing that it's not up to par.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Online Posts - 59,637 Likes - 9,272 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 7, 2017 11:15:37 GMT -6 harpman likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 7, 2017 11:15:37 GMT -6 Still no support on the GFS for any kind of development. The NHC maintains their lemon.

CajunWX GCWX Supporter Posts - 8,230 Likes - 2,652 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 7, 2017 12:26:45 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, SCOT PILIE', and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by CajunWX on Aug 7, 2017 12:26:45 GMT -6 Hello

HarahanTim - Now in Covington! Director of Public Relations Moderator Online Posts - 3,935 Likes - 2,262	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 7, 2017 13:02:35 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 7, 2017 13:02:35 GMT -6 Aug 7, 2017 12:26:45 GMT -6 CajunWX said: Hello Yep, the Euro currently shows a threat to the East Coast, in just a week. SaveSave
	Last Edit: Aug 7, 2017 13:03:08 GMT -6 by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! GCWX Director of Public Relations

CajunWX
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 7, 2017 13:24:50 GMT -6

Post by CajunWX on Aug 7, 2017 13:24:50 GMT -6

We'll see..

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
300 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Short term (Tonight-Wednesday)...a large and deep high pressure
system remains centered over the western Atlantic and keeping a
typical summer time weather pattern across the Florida peninsula.
Expect e/se flow and few to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon hours each day. Winds could be breezy at
times, especially near the east coast.

Afternoon temperatures will remain warm, mainly in the lower 90s.
Some mid to upper 90s are possible over interior areas. Nighttime
lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s, with some coastal
locations in the low 80s.

Long term (Wednesday night-Sunday)...model guidance continue to
depict a developing upper level trough moving across the state
late Thursday and into Friday, bringing increasing deep layer
moisture and more upper level support for enhanced convection,
especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some
storms may become severe, but widespread severe weather is not
anticipated at this time.

Once the upper trough move away from the area, the high pressure
over the Atlantic expands again into South Florida, with more
typical summer time weather through the weekend.

Siker Category 3 Online Posts - 756 Likes - 327 Social: - Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 7, 2017 13:39:49 GMT -6 via mobile SCOT PILIE' likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Siker on Aug 7, 2017 13:39:49 GMT -6 EPS support up to ~30/51 members, up from 10/51 last run. No support for a Gulf solution at this time.

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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 7, 2017 14:15:50 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 7, 2017 14:15:50 GMT -6

At least they're running tropical models again. Here are the 18z intensity runs...all showing a steady organization but we know to take these with a grain of salt.

 * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL992017  08/07/17  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    29    30    33    36    41    45    48    53    56    60
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    29    30    33    36    41    45    48    53    56    60
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    26    26    26    26    25    25    26    28    32    36    41
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         8    12    16    17    16    19    12    18     9    17     9    16    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -2    -1     1     4     3     1    -8    -3    -6    -1    -3    -2
SHEAR DIR        294   264   274   286   276   272   282   284   316   286   324   315   341
SST (C)         27.1  27.1  27.3  27.5  27.7  28.1  28.1  28.3  28.5  28.8  29.0  29.2  29.3
POT. INT. (KT)   126   127   129   131   134   139   138   141   145   150   154   157   159
ADJ. POT. INT.   123   123   126   128   129   132   130   132   134   141   145   149   148
200 MB T (C)   -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.4  -0.4  -0.4  -0.2  -0.1   0.0  -0.1   0.0   0.1   0.0  -0.1  -0.1   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       8     9     9     9    10    11    11    11    11    12    12    13    13
700-500 MB RH     50    49    48    47    46    48    47    50    50    49    48    49    50
MODEL VTX (KT)     7     7     7     7     6     6     6     6     5     5     4     4     3
850 MB ENV VOR    46    41    25    11     1   -11   -34   -44   -38   -28   -29   -36   -47
200 MB DIV       -16     0     1     7    19    13    15   -21    -5   -11     0   -22   -10
700-850 TADV       1    -1    -5    -4    -1     7    12     6    -1    -5    -3    -8    -6
LAND (KM)       1410  1372  1324  1290  1284  1167  1163  1002   852   693   590   538   544
LAT (DEG N)     15.5  15.9  16.1  16.4  16.8  17.9  19.4  20.8  22.1  22.9  23.6  24.1  24.7
LONG(DEG W)     45.3  46.6  48.0  49.4  50.7  53.0  54.7  56.5  58.6  61.2  64.4  67.7  71.1
STM SPEED (KT)    13    13    14    13    13    12    11    11    12    14    15    16    15
HEAT CONTENT      33    23    17    28    39    31    23    22    26    23    36    37    44

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12      CX,CY:  -9/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  708  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  53.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   1.   3.   6.  11.  16.  21.  25.  29.  31.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -8.  -9. -10. -11.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -0.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   4.   5.   8.  11.  16.  20.  23.  28.  31.  35.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   15.5    45.3

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST     08/07/17  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60           4.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    14.0      30.1  to    2.9       0.59           1.7
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    28.0       0.0  to  156.2       0.18           0.5
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -1.6       2.4  to   -3.0       0.74           2.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    19.7      36.6  to    2.8       0.50           1.5
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07           0.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   100.7      28.4  to  139.6       0.65           1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :     2.2     -29.7  to  181.5       0.15           0.1
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   180.0     961.4  to  -67.1       0.76           0.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    51.1     100.0  to    0.0       0.49           0.1
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   6% is   1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   1.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   7% is   1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     5.7%   15.6%   12.1%    7.0%    0.0%    0.0%   13.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     4.7%   10.4%    6.0%    2.3%    1.2%    5.7%    4.6%    9.0%
    Bayesian:     0.2%    0.2%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     3.5%    8.7%    6.1%    3.1%    0.4%    1.9%    5.9%    3.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST     08/07/17  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST     08/07/2017  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    26    28    29    30    33    36    41    45    48    53    56    60
 18HR AGO           25    24    26    27    28    31    34    39    43    46    51    54    58
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    22    23    26    29    34    38    41    46    49    53
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    16    19    22    27    31    34    39    42    46
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

Last Edit: Aug 7, 2017 14:16:34 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

HuRriCAnE miLeS
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 7, 2017 15:11:46 GMT -6

Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Aug 7, 2017 15:11:46 GMT -6

Since it was the euro that nailed Franklin before the gfs even had a clue of what was going on this perks up my interest just a little bit. Haven't looked at trough vs high lately but seems like every 7 days one is along the east coast so it's probably due.

hurricaner
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 8, 2017 7:01:52 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 8, 2017 7:01:52 GMT -6

Looks like the NHC maybe buying into the EURO percentages are 0/30%.

A trough of low pressure located about 800 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is not expected during the
next few days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However,
some development of this system is possible this weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

GCWX Board Member

Siker Category 3 Online Posts - 756 Likes - 327 Social: - Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 8, 2017 7:20:46 GMT -6 via mobile tgrgrd00 likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Siker on Aug 8, 2017 7:20:46 GMT -6 00z Euro continued with development of this north of the Caribbean. No threat to the Gulf; models are in agreement that a large trough will be draped over the Southeast in a week

CajunWX GCWX Supporter Posts - 8,230 Likes - 2,652 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 9, 2017 4:54:23 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by CajunWX on Aug 9, 2017 4:54:23 GMT -6

hurricaner
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Gert Discussion Thread Aug 9, 2017 12:37:38 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 9, 2017 12:37:38 GMT -6

99L appears to be getting better organized and the percentages are up 10/50%.

Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of
low pressure located about 350 miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands has continued to increase slightly in organization
since yesterday. While development should be slow to occur due
to unfavorable environmental conditions, the environment is forecast
to improve by this weekend while the trough moves northwestward over
the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

GCWX Board Member

loogaroo GCWX Supporter Posts - 441 Likes - 219	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 11, 2017 7:35:13 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by loogaroo on Aug 11, 2017 7:35:13 GMT -6 I might sound crazy, but 99L has an eerie trajectory that reminds me of Andrew and the K storm. Especially reminiscence of Katrina, the way that ULL is positioned.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Online Posts - 59,637 Likes - 9,272 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 12, 2017 8:42:10 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 12, 2017 8:42:10 GMT -6 Now code red on 99L

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Online Posts - 59,637 Likes - 9,272 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Gert Discussion Thread Aug 12, 2017 8:48:24 GMT -6 Dutar76 likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 12, 2017 8:48:24 GMT -6 BTW, the new GFS really is poo poo'ing on this one.

Gert Discussion Thread

Post by shelbysmom on Aug 6, 2017 19:30:20 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 7, 2017 11:15:37 GMT -6

Post by CajunWX on Aug 7, 2017 12:26:45 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 7, 2017 13:02:35 GMT -6

Post by CajunWX on Aug 7, 2017 13:24:50 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 7, 2017 13:39:49 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 7, 2017 14:15:50 GMT -6

Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Aug 7, 2017 15:11:46 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 8, 2017 7:01:52 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 8, 2017 7:20:46 GMT -6

Post by CajunWX on Aug 9, 2017 4:54:23 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 9, 2017 12:37:38 GMT -6

Post by loogaroo on Aug 11, 2017 7:35:13 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 12, 2017 8:42:10 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 12, 2017 8:48:24 GMT -6

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