Post by thermalwind on Apr 10, 2020 7:33:14 GMT -6
Doubt the moderate risk moves too far south. We're likely in for a rowdy QLCS where as the normal Dixie Alley area could pop off some more independent cells as the warm sector pushes north Sunday and will be closer to the low pressure center.
I'll do a deep model dive and update the title a little later this morning.
Edit in to add to read your LIX discussion this morning. Looks like @ulmwxr wrote it and my update today is basically going to show you on the models what he is saying. Absolutely fantastic breakdown of the set up.
Last Edit: Apr 10, 2020 7:43:38 GMT -6 by thermalwind
Doubt the moderate risk moves too far south. We're likely in for a rowdy QLCS where as the normal Dixie Alley area could pop off some more independent cells as the warm sector pushes north Sunday and will be closer to the low pressure center.
I'll do a deep model dive and update the title a little later this morning.
Edit in to add to read your LIX discussion this morning. Looks like @ulmwxr wrote it and my update today is basically going to show you on the models what he is saying. Absolutely fantastic breakdown of the set up.
Looks like a lot really depends on what happens with the Cap... Such a tough forecast!
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
Post by thermalwind on Apr 10, 2020 9:20:23 GMT -6
The good thing with the cap eroding being the most likely mode of failure for the high end severe stuff is it'll be apparent the day of. The sounding from Slidell would probably show a lesser cap than expected and we'd see storms firing off quickly and everywhere early in the day. Won't be much of a question if the cap is off since we're not exactly going to be starved of moisture.
Doubt the moderate risk moves too far south. We're likely in for a rowdy QLCS where as the normal Dixie Alley area could pop off some more independent cells as the warm sector pushes north Sunday and will be closer to the low pressure center.
I'll do a deep model dive and update the title a little later this morning.
Edit in to add to read your LIX discussion this morning. Looks like @ulmwxr wrote it and my update today is basically going to show you on the models what he is saying. Absolutely fantastic breakdown of the set up.
Do you have a link to the discussion? I can't seem to find it but I'm probably looking in the wrong place.
Quick question, forgive me if this has already been addressed, but what is the timeline looking like for the weather coming through? I thought I had read that it would be more of a daytime event. I hate those nighttime tornado warnings.
Still think the better chances of rain and severe weather will be north of the Gulf Coast, well north into interior LA, MS, and AL. The models are generally tending drier near the coast. I suspect there will be dense severe reports in the areas already under the moderate risk with lesser density east or west into the enhanced risk areas, but very little in the southern extent of the enhanced risk areas. Seems convection may really be struggling per NAM, but watch out Monroe, Jackson, Meridian, Tupelo, Birmingham!
Wait until Sunday around noon. There's still a lot of time for this to evolve and end up being a flop. Sunday around noon will be telling. If storms are firing off by then, we'll be in for a rocky afternoon.
